USA

Boston Globe: The World Pushes Back
Even if the US scores a quick victory in Iraq, the rest of the world won't fall in line behind America's new global agenda. Welcome to the era of ''soft balancing.''

By Robert A. Pape, 3/23/2003

OVER THE PAST six months, US diplomats have witnessed a profound change in the world's response to American power. They have seen not simply the reluctance of traditional allies to join the US war effort, but active efforts by many of the world's major powers to delay, frustrate, and undermine war plans and reduce the number of countries who would fight alongside the United States.

Such widespread opposition is unprecedented in our country's history. Most troublingly, it is only likely to increase in years ahead. America's decision to launch an unprovoked and essentially unilateral war against Iraq is encouraging other countries to form counterweights to US power. Today's conventional wisdom holds that France, Germany, Russia, China, and important regional states may be grumbling now, but they will quickly mend fences once the war ends with a decisive US victory. But the conventional wisdom is likely to be wrong.

International relations specialists speak of ''hard balancing'' when countries form military alliances to curb a strong nation. But America's rivals today, with no hope of matching our military power, are pursuing their interests by other means, and they will continue to do so. Unless the United States radically changes course, the use of international institutions, economic leverage, and diplomatic maneuvering to frustrate American intentions will only grow.

In the future, for example, Europeans may threaten our economy by paying for paying for oil in Euros rather than dollars, and they may threaten our security by permitting the construction of nuclear reactors in Iran and elsewhere. The era of ''soft balancing'' has begun......