Monday, December 06, 2004

DOLLAR VS. EURO

Quotes: Financial Crisis Ahead?

“Buffett said the transfer of the country's ‘net worth’ abroad would eventually lead to ‘major trouble.’ ‘In effect, our country has been behaving like an extraordinarily rich family that possesses an immense farm. In order to consume 4% more than we produce - that's the trade deficit - we have, day by day, been both selling pieces of the farm and increasing the mortgage on what we still own.’”
- Warren Buffett
CEO, Berkshire Hathaway & 2nd Wealthiest Person in the World



“Over time, there is only one direction for the dollar to go – lower.”
- Bob McTeer
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas



“[D]ue to our never-ending deficits what we're seeing is a massive transfer of assets from the U.S. to creditors probably the greatest transfer of assets in history. Over time this is going to mean a lowered standard of living for my kids and your kids, and if it happens quickly it will also mean a lowered standard of living for you and me. When you build up gigantic debts, somebody has to pay for those debts. The great American debt-sponsored party is slowly coming to an end.”
- Richard Russell
Editor-Publisher, Dow Theory Letters
Dow Theory Letters



The long-term picture is pretty bad.”
- Jagadeesh Gokhale
Senior Fellow, Cato Institute;
& research publisher for the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland



“To give you idea how big the problem is, you'd have to have an immediate and permanent 78 percent hike in the federal income tax [to close a $51 trillion fiscal gap]…. The country's absolutely broke, and both Bush and Kerry are being irresponsible in not addressing this problem. This administration and previous administrations have set us up for a major financial crisis on the order of what Argentina experienced a couple of years ago.”
- Laurence Kotlikoff
Economics Chairman, Boston University


“All the official reports, from the Congressional Budget Office to the Fed to the IMF, keep returning to the same bottom line: The longer we put off any sacrifice, the harder will be the blow to our nation, our economy, and our lives. With this year's record federal deficit, we are already effectively borrowing to fund all our domestic discretionary programs. By 2020 we will be borrowing to pay for our defense programs as well, since revenues by then will cover only benefit checks and interest on the national debt.”
- Peter G. Peterson
Former Chairman, Federal Reserve Bank of New York



“Volcker predicts we face a 75% chance of crisis within five years.”
- Paul Volcker
Former Chairman, Federal Reserve Board


“The direction of the dollar is down... The dollar is declining because of our loose money policy, our terrible fiscal deficit and our current-account deficit, all of which are heading the wrong way. What will happen at some point is that foreigners will stop buying our securities or at least buy less of them...

Given the decline in the dollar and the dramatic shortfall we see developing, we expect [gold as an asset class] to be our highest-return asset class. We look for gold to appreciate demonstrably from here. Our near-term target is $500 an ounce, and our longer term target is $1,000.”

- Richard Arvedlund
Founder, Cypress Capital Management
Forbes










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