ISRAEL VS. IRAN

International Herald Tribune: Is Israel planning to attack Iran?

Ariel Sharon may be on the warpath again and the target is Iran. In the past, the Israeli prime minister has focused attention on Iran by claiming that it presents the greatest threat to Israel. More than once, defense officials in Jerusalem have said that Israel might attack Iran's nuclear facilities. In response, Iran's defense minister, Ali Shamkhani, warned that should Israel do so, his country would wipe out Israel.

Now Israel, claiming to prepare against a possible "hit on its nuclear reactor," has started distributing antiradiation pills to civilians in townships surrounding it. In a country that has always sought to keep its nuclear activities out of the spotlight, that is a highly unusual step.

How serious is the Iranian threat? Iran has tested a Shihab surface-to-surface missile capable of reaching Israel and possesses a limited number of such missiles. At present, though, it is not known to possess nuclear weapons. As long as they carry conventional warheads, the Shihabs present minimal danger to Israel and other countries in the region. Should they be equipped with chemical warheads, the result may be greater casualties; still, even in that case Israel's existence would not be threatened.

The Shihabs apart, the only other way Tehran can fight Israel is to activate the Hezbollah terrorist organization in Lebanon. Hezbollah is said to have several thousand rockets, most of which were supplied by Iran, capable of reaching targets over much of northern Israel.